The Nerd’s Board: NHL Draft Sleepers

Image Credit: Ryan Molag/Langley Events Centre

The NHL Draft is just two days away, and the excitement has been building up for a long time.

The top of the class has been followed by the scouting community well before this season, and the hockey world will soon know where these elite talents will soon go. Leading the group is the best talent the NHL has seen since Connor McDavid in Connor Bedard, Up close is one of the most dominant college hockey players in recent memory in Adam Fantilli, and the best Russian prospect since the likes of Ovechkin and Malkin in Matvei Michkov. Other players throughout the class like Leo Carlsson, Will Smith, and David Reinbacher all have legitimate top-of-the-lineup upside.

What about the less heralded prospects, however? With as deep a class as the one being drafted from, the difference between a successful class and a dud could be in the middle of the order. Taking the swing on the correct prospects could mean getting multiple quality contributors to an NHL lineup in the future, which is always nice to have. Whether teams are looking for projectable traits, how players can fit certain schemes, or just overall value, this class will undoubtedly see many talents go later than they should.

Who are the prospects that can turn into absolute steals? Let’s find out.

David Edstrom, C, Frolunda Jr. (Sweden-Jr)

One of the biggest risers in the class, Edstrom has earned legitimate first-round consideration from many scouts.

While there have been questions about his skill in the offensive zone, Edstrom has done plenty to prove that’s not necessarily a concern. He featured heavily on Sweden’s top power play unit at the World Juniors, produced at a point-per-game clip in Sweden’s under-20 league, and didn’t look out of place when facing off against grown men in the SHL. Combine that with a six-foot-three frame and having the type of high-motor game that NHL coaches love, and there’s a lot more to work with than meets the eye.

A middle-six two-way center with the potential for more is a tantalizing prospect for any team to acquire. If Edstrom doesn’t hear his name called at the end of the first round, he’ll be a steal in the second.

Dmitri Simashev, D, Lokomotiv Yaroslavl Jr. (Russia-Jr)

Ok, what’s the big idea here? In yesterday’s mock draft, Simashev was a lottery pick, so why does he count as a sleeper? The answer is surprisingly simple: the Russian factor may cause a slide for arguably the best defenseman in the class.

Arguably the smoothest-skating defenseman in the class, Simashev’s a six-foot-four left-shot defenseman who competes in all zones and possesses tremendous hockey IQ. While much of his work was done in Russia’s youth leagues, Simashev was able to get 18 KHL games this season. The stats may not jump off the page, but the fact that Simashev was able to not only gain significant ice time in a league notorious for keeping young players on the bench, but hold his own in the second-best league in the world is a testament to his development. While Simashev’s contract with Yaroslavl will keep him in Russia until 2025, but there is a strong chance he will be NHL-ready by the time he signs his first contract in North America.

The most likely prognosis for Simashev is that he will be selected in the top 20, likely in the lottery range. If he falls, however, a contender might be getting a home run opportunity.

Tanner Molendyk, D, Saskatoon (WHL)

Outside of the top tier of defensemen, the next group consists of blueliners with projectable traits and NHL upside. Molendyk would fit the bill as one such option.

While Molendyk’s scouting reports might indicate a second-round pick, there is a legitimate case to be made for taking him in the first. Similar to Simashev, Molendyk has some of the best skating amongst defensemen in this year’s class, and his compete level is always high. If he was a couple of inches taller, Molendyk would be an established first-round option by now. While size can be somewhat important when it comes to determining traits such as play strength, there’s enough in the toolbox for Molendyk to overcome it.

A second-round steal waiting to happen, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a contender draft Molendyk and give him the necessary development time to prosper. I had Vegas taking him at the tail end of the first round in yesterday’s mock; would that be a reasonable fit?

Juraj Pekarcik, F, HK Nitra (Slovakia)

With Juraj Slafkovsky and Simon Nemec going one and two in last year’s draft and Dalibor Dvorsky looking like a locked-in top-ten selection this year, this is an exciting period for Slovakian hockey. Outside of those top talents, however, is a potential diamond in the rough in Pekarcik.

With Pekarcik being born only four days before the cutoff date for eligibility in this year’s draft, he’ll be one of the youngest players in the class. Also working in Pekarcik’s favor is his six-foot-two frame, strong skating ability, and defensive awareness. While the offense didn’t necessarily come in the Slovakian leagues, Pekarcik was the best player on Slovakia not named Dvorsky in this year’s World Juniors, where he showcased great offensive skills to go along with the strong play in his own end. How his offense develops from here will determine if Pekarcik is a potential middle-six forward, but his defense and skating should be enough to secure an NHL spot, making him a lower-risk proposition than some other options.

Pekarcik’s rankings have seen him go anywhere between the second and third rounds. If he slips towards the latter range, a team may have a steal on their hands.

Easton Cowan, F, London (OHL)

Just like the Russian factor, size has always played a role in determining rankings, even if it given a little too much significance at times. Teams who are scared to draft smaller players have resulted in talent coming off the board later than they should have; this year, Cowan stands out as Exhibit A of that theory.

The main knock on Cowan that I’ve seen is his five-foot-ten frame, which makes his NHL projection a little bit harder to nail down. That’s a shame, as Cowan was a consistent bright spot for the London Knights as a two-way catalyst and playmaker. Nowhere was that more evident than in the OHL playoffs, where Cowan and fellow underrated prospect Denver Barkey played pivotal roles in taking London to the championship. Boasting possibly the best compete level in the class, Cowan will endear himself to scouts and coaching staffs early.

If Cowan was about three or four inches taller, we’re discussing him as a prospect who goes no later than the early second round. However, he may slip down into the third, where a team could get someone who can positively contribute in a few years.

Carter Sotheran, D, Portland (WHL)

While the prototypical NHL defenseman is a two-way player that can hold their own in both ends of the ice, landing a shutdown defenseman who can complement any other blueliner on a roster is a nice addition. If a team is looking for such a player, Sotheran is one such prospect that should drum up interest.

Another younger player in the class, Sotheran is one of the rare prospects who knows how to use his frame effectively, boxing out forwards and winning board battles with relative ease. While his offensive game wasn’t showcased as much, he showed flashes of puck skill in transition to suggest that there is something to work with at that end. Should that develop, Sotheran can emerge as more than just a bottom-pair shutdown defenseman; that said, such a projection is still worthy of being drafted at a decent spot.

Expect Sotheran to be a comfortable third-round selection with the hopes that he can develop offensively and show legitimate skill. If he does, some general manager is going to look smart.

Hoyt Stanley, D, Victoria (BCHL)

In leagues like the BCHL, it’s difficult to get much attention from scouts due to the leagues not being considered a major junior league. Prospects here have to rely on their toolboxes, and Stanley has one of the best.

A Cornell commit, Stanley possesses the type of traits that NHL coaches usually covet in their defense. While Stanley could afford to be more physical at times, a six-foot-two frame should give him some time to do that. What teams will know immediately is his ability in the offensive zone, where he serves as a creative threat from the blueline. He can accurately predict where the defensive pressure is coming from and play the puck towards a soft spot, or rip one-timers from the point with a good amount of power. The NCAA has boasted plenty of talent coming from these smaller leagues, with the likes of Adam Fantilli, Matthew Wood, and top 2024 prospect Macklin Celebrini all taking the same route. Scouts will hope for further development in Stanley’s game at the collegiate level, which should decide where his ceiling is.

If your team is still looking for a defenseman in the middle rounds and you’re hoping for a dart throw, Stanley is as nice an option as any.

Felix Unger Sorum, F, Leksands (Sweden-Jr)

As mentioned with Stanley, lower leagues tend to require either great tools or production to warrant attention from scouts. In that case, the Norwegian-born, Sweden-representing Unger Sorum could be of interest in the middle rounds.

Possibly the youngest player in the class (he was born one day before the cutoff point for this year’s draft), FUS has spent the last few years working his way through the Swedish hockey ranks. While his first stint in the SHL was short and not overly notable, he’s performed well in every other league, as well as form a dominant line with Otto Stenberg and David Edstrom at the World Juniors. FUS has emerged as a legitimate playmaker throughout the season, and he even showed some defensive chops in his limited time in the SHL. The fact he was able to do this at just 17 years old is astounding in and of itself, and NHL scouts will be looking for FUS to continue developing further.

With time on his side and an impressive resume to build off of, FUS stands out as a player worth targeting in the third round. I don’t know if I’d call him a sleeper top-six option, but he can certainly shine with an organization that preaches patience.

Luke Mittelstadt, D, Minnesota (NCAA)

The pandemic certainly caused havoc in the hockey world, including several prospects missing out on needed development time. Mittelstadt was one such prospect, but the double-overager is hoping that the third time’s the charm for his draft hopes.

After a COVID-ravaged draft season and a mediocre performance last year, Mittelstadt finally put it all together for the Gophers on their way to the championship game this year with 21 points in 38 games. His skating, hockey sense, and playmaking from the back end all looked like they had improved, which is a promising sign of development. Representing the United States at the World Juniors is a nice touch, as well.

There is debate on who the best overage prospect in the draft is. Mittelstadt’s season has certainly thrown his name into contention, and he will be a name to watch in the fourth or fifth round.

Matt Copponi, C, Merrimack (NCAA)

Much of the talk around college prospects centers around Michigan Wolverines Fantilli and Gavin Brindley, which is understandable. While names like Mittelstadt worked hard on a big-time program like Minnesota, Copponi was improving his game in the northeast.

After a rough freshman year at Merrimack, Copponi was one of their best players in his sophomore season. With 29 points in 38 games, he improved dramatically and showcased what he brings to the table as a player. While Copponi certainly has some skill, what really drew the attention of scouts was his ability to be physical in key situations and emerge as a leader. Perhaps that doesn’t equate to being a star, but there is a future where Copponi becomes a vital part of an NHL bottom-six. On last year’s list, I suggested Connor Kurth as a player who would be scooped up as a college free agent if he wasn’t drafted; Kurth ended up getting his name called, and I can imagine Copponi on a similar trajectory.

Copponi may be waiting until the back end of the draft to hear his name, but a low-risk, medium-reward proposition like him is never a bad bet. The fifth or sixth round would be a good place to draft him.

Paul Fischer, D, U.S. NTDP

With names like Will Smith, Ryan Leonard, and Oliver Moore leading the charge, the NTDP is looking at a strong crop for themselves. Of course, those names aren’t the only ones in the mix and, while Carey Terrance and Ryan Fine both warrant mentions, Fischer has been the one making the rounds as a sleeper hit.

As a top-four defenseman for the NTDP, Fischer was defensively responsible and never seemed to be out of position. He’s fast enough to keep the play in front of him and has the hockey sense needed to make the smart play. While his offensive capabilities are a bit behind, those can be built up with time. If he can add some muscle to his frame, however, he can add some power to an underrated wrist shot that could turn him into a threat. Even if he’s an average offensive option, Fischer should earn his keep as a defensive specialist that can impact the game in a number of ways.

A lot of rankings put Fischer around the third round, which teams may consider a little too rich for a somewhat raw prospect. The fourth round seems more reasonable to me, but a team that need defensive help can certainly take a swing.

Eric Pohlkamp, D, Cedar Rapids (USHL)

It’s good seeing players that struggle in their draft years rise up to the occasion, following a positive development curve that teams are looking for. Pohlkamp has emerged from a forgotten option to one of the best overage prospects in this year’s group.

A Bemidji State commit, Pohlkamp’s production exploded this past season en route to being named the best defenseman in the USHL. While he’s serviceable on the back end, Pohlkamp became a threat with the puck on his stick. Whether he’s starting the transition game with a breakout pass or being aggressive with a slapshot from the point, Pohlkamp impressed scouts with much-improved awareness in possession. That kind of development is what scouts want to see, and the idea of drafting him to monitor his collegiate career is an appealing idea.

It’s hard to imagine Pohlkamp being skipped over again after the tremendous season he had. The fifth round would be a worthwhile time to invest.

Brandon Svoboda, C, Youngstown (USHL)

Playing on a championship team can be a double-edged sword; a prospect can get more exposure, but they may not get the playing time they need to shine. On a Youngstown team that included William Whitelaw and Andrew Strathmann, it was the less-heralded Svoboda that earned fans in the scouting community.

On the surface, Svoboda is exactly what NHL teams are looking for. Six-foot-three frame, quality skating to justify keeping him at the center position, good spurts of offensive ability, and that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Like most prospects playing in leagues like the USHL, Svoboda will be going the college route with Boston University. The hope would be that he can gain some much-needed consistency in his game with that route, and it would start by running through the USHL like his toolbox suggests he can.

Svoboda is the classic late-round sleeper that can tilt a draft class in a team’s favor. Expect someone to take the shot in the fifth or sixth round.

Cole Knuble, C, Fargo (USHL)

Typically, prospects who struggle with their skating can find it difficult to progress in their development; however, players like Mark Stone have proven you can get away with even average skating if you have the tools to compensate. Comparing Knuble to the Cup-winning captain might be questionable, but it gives teams some idea of what they’re looking at here.

Son of longtime NHLer Mike Knuble, Cole’s game is fashioned rather similarly to his father. The skating is obviously a problem, but Knuble proved to be a menace to opposing players in his draft season and this season. His two-way game allows him to be active on the forecheck while also possessing the offensive instincts needed to make the best possible play. His willingness to get in front of the net and be a nuisance is also an added bonus, despite not having the typical size of a net-front player. He has committed to Notre Dame, where he’ll hopefully be able to iron out his skating mechanics and polish what appears to be a well-rounded game.

Knuble was a slight surprise to be passed on last year. It would be a bigger surprise if teams make the same mistake twice, even if it has to wait until the later rounds.

Zaccharya Wisdom, F, Cedar Rapids (USHL)

While the USHL may not be as prevalent a scouting haven as the CHL or European systems, this list has shown that talent can still be found there. Wisdom is another prospect that proves such a point.

Brother of Philadelphia Flyers prospect Zayde Wisdom, Zaccharya has done what he can to ensure he does not get passed over like he was last season. A dominant offensive force for Cedar Rapids, Wisdom showcased the skills that NHL teams are commonly looking for in late-round picks. He possesses a nice combination of size and skating ability, plays strong on the forecheck, and is not afraid to get physical and battle along the boards. A Colorado College commit, Wisdom will hope to refine his game in order to better anticipate plays as they develop instead of relying on instincts alone. That said, there is the potential to carve out a spot as a bottom-six NHL forward.

Once again, Wisdom will have to wait for a little while to hear his name get called in the draft. However, similar to Knuble, it’s hard to envision teams passing on Wisdom after the improvement he’s shown.

Tanner Adams, F, Tri-City (USHL)

Adams is a relatively interesting case for this draft. A player who dropped on the NHL’s own rankings, Adams’s season doesn’t really reflect as somebody who struggled at all.

One of Tri-City’s most consistent players this season, Adams showcased some interesting versatility. Despite playing at the wing to start the year, Adams was trusted enough to switch over center and stay, something that will surely capture the attention of scouts. Adams was also deployed in every situation, playing on both the power play and penalty kill units. There isn’t much flash to his game, and he will hope to improve his skating mechanics at Providence, but Adams is the type of player NHL scouts would be comfortable taking late.

While I’m admittedly less certain about Adams’s chances of getting drafted than the other prospects listed so far, that’s based more on the lack of anything flashy than having a lacking skillset. He’s someone that would be a fine late-round choice.

Larry Keenan, D, Culver Academy (US-High School)

High school prospects are risks in large part due to how raw they are, and prospects like Keenan may have their skillsets look better against less stiff competition. That said, when a prospect like Keenan makes the Combine despite being outside the typical range of invitees, there’s going to be some significant intrigue.

While Keenan likely hasn’t been truly tested defensively yet, there’s a lot to like about his overall game. His six-foot-three frame and mobility are what NHL teams look for in their defensemen nowadays, and he can be a true quarterback in the offensive zone with his wicked point shot and offensive instincts. Even more interesting is that Keenan will be playing collegiately for the University of Massachusetts. Take a look at this list of former UMass defenseman: Cale Makar, Brandon Montour, Justin Braun, Mario Ferraro. Those are defensemen who have all carved out spots in an NHL top-four, and Keenan could very well join that group with proper development.

Keenan embodies the term “raw potential,” and teams will likely be drafting him a round or two early just to be sure no one else gets the jump on him. Expect him to be off the board before the fifth round starts.

Scott Ratzlaff/Thomas Milic, G, Seattle (WHL)

It’s hard to believe that two goaltenders from the same team, let alone the same tandem from the team that won the CHL Memorial Cup, would both be on this list. However, such is the case with Ratzlaff and Milic.

While Ratzlaff served as the understudy to the more experienced Milic, he was still able to put together a remarkable season. His six-foot-one frame may not be ideal, but Ratzlaff makes up for it with his athleticism and technical savvy. Ratzlaff is usually in the right position to make saves, but he has the skating ability to get back on the rare occasions he falls out of position. He never puts himself into a bad spot and always seems calm under pressure, which is something NHL scouts will take notice of.

After two seasons of being passed over, it would be outright shocking if Milic is passed for a third time. He won the WHL’s top goaltender award, was the MVP of the WHL’s playoffs, and looked outright dominant for Canada at the World Juniors. His athleticism and competitiveness are almost unmatched, and there’s reason to believe he’s the most pro-ready goaltender in the class. The only problem is Milic is only six feet tall, which is under what the NHL considers ideal for goaltenders. That said, Dustin Wolf has had a nearly similar path to the pros, and he has dominated the AHL to the point that the Calgary Flames might be forced to move a goaltender to make room for him. Milic can do the exact same on another team’s roster, and he has the tools to do it.

While Milic has the slightly better statistical record, Ratzlaff is considered to be the overall better prospect. The third or fourth round would be an ideal time to nab either one, with the confidence that they can reach “future starter” status sooner rather than later.

Damian Clara, G, Farjestad (Sweden-Jr)

Looking for Ratzlaff and Milic’s athletic package, but want prototypical NHL goaltender size? Clara might be exactly what you’re looking for.

Standing at six-foot-six, Italian international Clara moved from Austria to try his hand at the Swedish system. The move’s gone alright for him so far, and he will be called up the second tier of Swedish hockey in the Allsvenskan this upcoming season. While the lack of exposure against top competition makes Clara more of a project, he’s more than just a run-of-the-mill big goaltender. He has the athleticism to move around much more fluidly than a typical man of his stature, which should come in handy as he navigates through the Swedish ranks.

Clara is a pure upside bid at this stage of his development, but that should not deter teams from taking a late-round swing at him. The fifth round seems like the safe bet for his draft spot.

The Sports Nerd’s 2022 NHL Draft Sleepers

First of all, congratulations to the Colorado Avalanche and their fans on their Stanley Cup victory. This was the season many (myself included) felt the team had to prove something, and they succeeded. Well done.

However, now is not the time to rest on any laurels. Not even a month after a Stanley Cup Champion has been crowned, the league focuses its attention on the NHL Draft. While a lot of people will be looking towards 2023 with the likes of Connor Bedard, Matvei Michkov, and Adam Fantilli in the mix, that doesn’t mean the 2022 class has to be a throwaway.

Much like every other league, the NHL Draft offers teams to build up their prospect systems and monitor their development before deciding what role each prospect will have in their organization. While some players may have a difficult time adjusting, others just need the opportunity to show what they can do at the next level.

The current NHL landscape is dotted with late-round gems such as Kirill Kaprizov, Mark Stone, Joe Pavelski, Connor Hellebuyck, and Frederik Andersen. Some of the best players the league has ever seen like Brett Hull, Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, and Luc Robitaille had to wait a long time on draft day to finally hear their name called. While it’s uncertain if any of these players will reach those levels, they all have skills that should make them more valued than what their draft placement might indicate.

Let’s see who’s going to make some lucky NHL GM look like a genius.

David Goyette, C, Sudbury (OHL): Now this might require an explanation. Compared to some of the other names on this list, Goyette is relatively high on some boards. How does he count as a sleeper? It probably has to do with the fact that some pundits have questions about how well his game will translate to the NHL level, especially given his size (5’10”, 175 lbs).

I’m someone who believes that Goyette not only has what it takes to make it in the NHL, but also has the tools it takes to be successful. He’s one of the fastest and best-skating players in the draft, which should set him apart from other fringe first-round talents. While he could stand to diversify his offensive game beyond the rush, he has the creativity and willingness to get better on that front. A couple years in the OHL, plus an extra season or two of development in the AHL, should help Goyette bulk up and develop his game. His ceiling is probably that of a second-line wing, which is a nice value for the back half of the first round.

Noah Warren, RD, Gatineau (QMJHL): Another prospect ranked higher than others here, Warren’s primary issue is that he lacks the flash that some of his contemporaries have. With plenty of right-side defensemen in the same tier as Warren (Ryan Chesley, Tristan Luneau, Sam Rinzel, Seamus Casey, and Mattias Havelid,) Warren’s lack of consistent offensive pop could get him lost in the shuffle.

So what does Warren have that stands out? The answer is simple; Warren has the best combination of size and skating at his position. While his skating has some room for improvement, you won’t find many young defensemen that are 6’5″ and move the way Warren does on the ice. That speed helps him out on the defensive end, as Warren isn’t afraid to cut off lanes, work opposing rushers to the boards, and deliver crushing hits. He’s the type of player I can see enjoying an Alec Martinez-esque career in the NHL, working as a top-four defenseman who can chip in enough offensively to complement his defensive and penalty killing acumen.

Reid Schaefer, F, Seattle (WHL): The last of the high-end sleepers, Schaefer picked a great year to have a breakout season. After a couple of mediocre years split between the WHL and AJHL, Schaefer exploded with a 32-goal, 58-point season this time around. That performance carried over the WHL playoffs, which only helped Schaefer’s case as one of this season’s biggest risers.

Schaefer’s frame (6’3″, 215 lbs) and skill set scream power forward. His finishing ability on the offensive end allows him to be a threat both in transition and on set plays in front of the net. Meanwhile, his size also allows him to be a strong defender, causing havoc on the boards and keeping opposing forwards away from the slot. His skating and passing are still works in progress, but there’s reason to believe he can improve. He can thrive as either an all-around top-six wing or a checking line power forward with some scoring touch, depending on how the rest of his game develops.

Cedrick Guindon, C, Owen Sound (OHL): Now we get to the guys who will be drafted later, and let’s start with arguably my favorite sleeper in the class. Guindon’s small stature (5’10”, 163 lbs) will scare some teams away, and he might not come across as dynamic as Goyette or any other small forwards ranked higher than him. This could cause him to slide to the fourth or possibly the fifth round, which I think would be a mistake.

Guindon is one of the best pure skaters in the class, allowing him to play with pace at both ends of the ice. His ability to break out in transition and never give up on a play is what coaching staffs and scouts love. He can stand to improve his shot, but a 30-goal season this year could indicate that it’s getting better already. Most teams profile Guindon as a bottom-six forward who specializes in killing penalties, but I think he has the opportunity to be more. I see a two-way center who can become a middle-six fixture for years, as soon as the playmaking ability and consistency matches his speed.

Martin Johnsen, F, Farjestad BK (SHL): There are very few Norwegian players who have made it to the NHL, and the only notable one of that group is Mats Zuccarello. This year, however, there is a crop of Norwegian prospects who have likely caught the eyes of at least a few NHL scouts, with Johnsen leading the way.

After dominating in his home country, Johnsen was brought to Sweden to play in Farjestad’s youth program. Johnsen played so well against players in his age group that he was brought along to play with the big club; while he didn’t record a point, the fact he was able to reach that level so quickly is astonishing. That dominance wasn’t limited to just Norway and Sweden; at the Under-18 World Junior Championships, Johnsen broke the tournament scoring record with 14 points in only five games. While he isn’t blessed with size or any elite traits, what Johnsen does have on others is how he thinks the game. He allows the play to come to him instead of forcing himself into bad positions, which is incredibly valuable for teams who like to win the possession battles. He’ll be around until the later rounds, but where he ultimately goes will likely be a round or two lower than where I would have him.

Alex Bump, F, Omaha (USHL): While the NCAA doesn’t carry the same level of prestige for NHL prospects as the Canadian Hockey League does, that doesn’t mean it’s without merit. Some of the best players from today (Cale Makar, Adam Fox, Jack Eichel) and all time (Martin St. Louis, Brian Leetch, Rod Brind’Amour) all got their starts playing college hockey. One of the latest products of that system could be Bump, a 2023 commit to St. Louis’s alma mater at the University of Vermont.

Playing most of last season for Prior Lake High School in Minnesota, Bump was the best player on the ice for virtually every game. His offensive ability includes driving the play and creating scoring chances for himself and his teammates, and it was on display often. Eventually, Bump would get called up to play better competition in the USHL, and he didn’t look out of place at all. His defensive game isn’t quite on the same level as the offense, but his speed and stick handling give him at least a viable foundation to develop on that front. To me, Bump is a third-round pick with serious potential to make a difference in the NHL in a few years, but others might be shied away from that range due to his status as a bit of a long-term project.

Connor Kurth, F, Dubuque (USHL): Another college prospect, Kurth is the first overage prospect in this group after being passed over in his first season of eligibility. A large part of this was due to Kurth’s skating and conditioning, both of which probably tanked his stock. With that disappointment, Kurth responded by decimating the USHL the following season.

He doubled his goal scoring from 15 to 35, tied for the team league with fellow prospect Stephen Halliday. While there are still deficiencies in Kurth’s overall game, the fact he was able to work on his weaknesses shows that he has the willingness to develop. That will go nicely at the University of Minnesota, where Kurth has committed to for this upcoming season. Kurth stands out as someone who will be a priority undrafted free agent coming out of college in a few years, but with his production and the University of Minnesota’s track record of churning out talent, I wouldn’t be opposed to spending a late-round pick on him and be able to monitor his development without the risk of competing for him when his time in college is over.

Josh Davies, F, Swift Current (WHL)/Samuel Savoie, F, Gatineau (QMJHL): I decided to group both of these prospects together because they are essentially the same type of player. While both are smaller forwards that don’t provide too much offense, they are players that both coaching staffs and analytics love.

When it comes to both of them, think Brad Marchand without the same level of scoring touch. They are both some of the faster players you’ll find in this class, and both are absolute nightmares to play against. While Savoie is more adept at staying out of the penalty box than Davies is, having players like them who will step up and cause problems for the opponent’s stars are important for any team to have. If they can build off of their attributes, both have futures as bottom-six fixtures. Davies and Savoie aren’t the types of players teams will be looking to lean on offensively, but they’re the players that help those teams win championships, and that’s what important to understand.

Liam Steele, RD, Chilliwack (BCHL): Don’t look now, but Great Britain is starting to come along with their hockey program. While their own league is still coming together, players are starting to emerge as the UK hopes to produce their first full-time NHLer since Owen Nolan retired in 2010. While Arizona’s Liam Kirk has the potential to do that, don’t be surprised if Steele isn’t too far behind.

Captaining Stanstead College in Quebec, Steele was able to produce at a point-per-game pace and show enough skill to not only be tendered to play for the Chilliwack Chiefs this upcoming season, but earn a scholarship to Cornell in 2023. Even more impressive is that Steele has a similar size-speed combination to Warren, with his skating complementing his 6’6″ frame. While he has been shown to dominate lesser competition, this season and his first year at Cornell will be pivotal in his development. I think he has all the tools to be a successful player, and a mid-to-late round pick would make him the low-risk, high-reward gamble that makes a scout look like a genius.

Jake Furlong, LD/RD, Halifax (QMJHL): It’s rare to see someone have the physical transformation that Furlong has had over the past year, growing four inches and gaining almost forty pounds in order to play against bigger forwards. Not only had Furlong been up to that challenge, but he’s been so successful that it should force teams to re-evaluate where his ceiling is.

Furlong has become a proven minute-muncher, often going against quality opposition and being able to stand his ground in his own zone. His hockey IQ and positioning are some of the best in this class, being able to create turnovers and then starting the breakout from the neutral zone or his own end. While he doesn’t have the same offensive capabilities of other defensemen in this class, his production indicates that it can come along. Those skills, along with his versatility to play both sides on defense, should give Furlong a home as a top-four defenseman who can contribute in a variety of situations.

Tyson Jugnauth, LD, West Kelowna (BCHL): Sure, the BCHL isn’t on the same level as the OHL, WHL, or QMJHL. It’s still been a place for talent to develop, as players like Brett Hull, Carey Price, and Scott Gomez have all called the BCHL home at some point. When you take home the award for the league’s best defenseman, that warrants some attention. If you haven’t heard of Jugnauth yet, you will soon enough.

While the consistency still needs to get there, Jugnauth still managed to be second amongst all BCHL defensemen in points with 50. There’s clear skill on the back end here, and Jugnauth’s creativity and vision allow him to drive play from the point. It won’t remind anybody of Erik Karlsson in his prime, but getting a defenseman like Jugnauth who can chip in offensively and be a potential power play quarterback in the middle rounds is a great find. He’s committed to the University of Wisconsin for this upcoming season, so American audiences will get a closer look at what he can bring to the table.

Rastislav Elias, G, Green Bay (USHL): There was once a time when Elias was considered a top goaltending prospect in this year’s class. After a rough maiden season in North America with a poor Green Bay squad, some of that enthusiasm has dampened to the point where Elias may not even be drafted. However, the same goaltender from about a year ago still exists.

While Elias had a rough acclimation to the North American game, it seems he started to pick his game up towards the end. His final five games saw him put up a .914 save percentage, so there’s reason to believe he’ll improve. Add a silver medal in the Hlinka Gretzky Cup and being named the best goaltender in the tournament should also indicate there’s a solid framework. In a weak goaltender class this season, prospects like Elias may not fall as hard as people think, and I imagine a team still trying to find an option for the future could look at him as a solution. Keep his name in mind as the draft starts winding down.

Russian players. All of them.: The reason I wanted to list this is because some prospects will fall for the same reason: their home country. The Russian factor has always caused talent to slip down some boards, but the combination of an increasingly volatile political climate and recent events involving Ivan Fedotov have caused some teams to take Russian prospects off their boards entirely.

This could end up creating some serious havoc on draft night, as there are plenty of Russian prospects still in the country that could see their draft stock crater. While Russian-born players playing in North America like Pavel Mintyukov will likely be unaffected, what about others? Danila Yurov, Gleb Trikozov, and Ivan Miroshnichenko would all be likely first-round picks in a normal world. However, the uncertainty and real-world implications could cause these prospects to slip nearly an entire round lower than normal. While teams would be right to be scared away, any team willing to take a chance could end up getting a first-round prospect at a serious discount. There is definite risk attached to everybody, but the rewards have to balance that out at some point.