The Nerd’s Board: NHL Draft Sleepers

The NHL Draft is just two days away, and the excitement has been building up for a long time.

The top of the class has been followed by the scouting community well before this season, and the hockey world will soon know where these elite talents will soon go. Leading the group is the best talent the NHL has seen since Connor McDavid in Connor Bedard, Up close is one of the most dominant college hockey players in recent memory in Adam Fantilli, and the best Russian prospect since the likes of Ovechkin and Malkin in Matvei Michkov. Other players throughout the class like Leo Carlsson, Will Smith, and David Reinbacher all have legitimate top-of-the-lineup upside.

What about the less heralded prospects, however? With as deep a class as the one being drafted from, the difference between a successful class and a dud could be in the middle of the order. Taking the swing on the correct prospects could mean getting multiple quality contributors to an NHL lineup in the future, which is always nice to have. Whether teams are looking for projectable traits, how players can fit certain schemes, or just overall value, this class will undoubtedly see many talents go later than they should.

Who are the prospects that can turn into absolute steals? Let’s find out.

David Edstrom, C, Frolunda Jr. (Sweden-Jr)

One of the biggest risers in the class, Edstrom has earned legitimate first-round consideration from many scouts.

While there have been questions about his skill in the offensive zone, Edstrom has done plenty to prove that’s not necessarily a concern. He featured heavily on Sweden’s top power play unit at the World Juniors, produced at a point-per-game clip in Sweden’s under-20 league, and didn’t look out of place when facing off against grown men in the SHL. Combine that with a six-foot-three frame and having the type of high-motor game that NHL coaches love, and there’s a lot more to work with than meets the eye.

A middle-six two-way center with the potential for more is a tantalizing prospect for any team to acquire. If Edstrom doesn’t hear his name called at the end of the first round, he’ll be a steal in the second.

Dmitri Simashev, D, Lokomotiv Yaroslavl Jr. (Russia-Jr)

Ok, what’s the big idea here? In yesterday’s mock draft, Simashev was a lottery pick, so why does he count as a sleeper? The answer is surprisingly simple: the Russian factor may cause a slide for arguably the best defenseman in the class.

Arguably the smoothest-skating defenseman in the class, Simashev’s a six-foot-four left-shot defenseman who competes in all zones and possesses tremendous hockey IQ. While much of his work was done in Russia’s youth leagues, Simashev was able to get 18 KHL games this season. The stats may not jump off the page, but the fact that Simashev was able to not only gain significant ice time in a league notorious for keeping young players on the bench, but hold his own in the second-best league in the world is a testament to his development. While Simashev’s contract with Yaroslavl will keep him in Russia until 2025, but there is a strong chance he will be NHL-ready by the time he signs his first contract in North America.

The most likely prognosis for Simashev is that he will be selected in the top 20, likely in the lottery range. If he falls, however, a contender might be getting a home run opportunity.

Tanner Molendyk, D, Saskatoon (WHL)

Outside of the top tier of defensemen, the next group consists of blueliners with projectable traits and NHL upside. Molendyk would fit the bill as one such option.

While Molendyk’s scouting reports might indicate a second-round pick, there is a legitimate case to be made for taking him in the first. Similar to Simashev, Molendyk has some of the best skating amongst defensemen in this year’s class, and his compete level is always high. If he was a couple of inches taller, Molendyk would be an established first-round option by now. While size can be somewhat important when it comes to determining traits such as play strength, there’s enough in the toolbox for Molendyk to overcome it.

A second-round steal waiting to happen, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a contender draft Molendyk and give him the necessary development time to prosper. I had Vegas taking him at the tail end of the first round in yesterday’s mock; would that be a reasonable fit?

Juraj Pekarcik, F, HK Nitra (Slovakia)

With Juraj Slafkovsky and Simon Nemec going one and two in last year’s draft and Dalibor Dvorsky looking like a locked-in top-ten selection this year, this is an exciting period for Slovakian hockey. Outside of those top talents, however, is a potential diamond in the rough in Pekarcik.

With Pekarcik being born only four days before the cutoff date for eligibility in this year’s draft, he’ll be one of the youngest players in the class. Also working in Pekarcik’s favor is his six-foot-two frame, strong skating ability, and defensive awareness. While the offense didn’t necessarily come in the Slovakian leagues, Pekarcik was the best player on Slovakia not named Dvorsky in this year’s World Juniors, where he showcased great offensive skills to go along with the strong play in his own end. How his offense develops from here will determine if Pekarcik is a potential middle-six forward, but his defense and skating should be enough to secure an NHL spot, making him a lower-risk proposition than some other options.

Pekarcik’s rankings have seen him go anywhere between the second and third rounds. If he slips towards the latter range, a team may have a steal on their hands.

Easton Cowan, F, London (OHL)

Just like the Russian factor, size has always played a role in determining rankings, even if it given a little too much significance at times. Teams who are scared to draft smaller players have resulted in talent coming off the board later than they should have; this year, Cowan stands out as Exhibit A of that theory.

The main knock on Cowan that I’ve seen is his five-foot-ten frame, which makes his NHL projection a little bit harder to nail down. That’s a shame, as Cowan was a consistent bright spot for the London Knights as a two-way catalyst and playmaker. Nowhere was that more evident than in the OHL playoffs, where Cowan and fellow underrated prospect Denver Barkey played pivotal roles in taking London to the championship. Boasting possibly the best compete level in the class, Cowan will endear himself to scouts and coaching staffs early.

If Cowan was about three or four inches taller, we’re discussing him as a prospect who goes no later than the early second round. However, he may slip down into the third, where a team could get someone who can positively contribute in a few years.

Carter Sotheran, D, Portland (WHL)

While the prototypical NHL defenseman is a two-way player that can hold their own in both ends of the ice, landing a shutdown defenseman who can complement any other blueliner on a roster is a nice addition. If a team is looking for such a player, Sotheran is one such prospect that should drum up interest.

Another younger player in the class, Sotheran is one of the rare prospects who knows how to use his frame effectively, boxing out forwards and winning board battles with relative ease. While his offensive game wasn’t showcased as much, he showed flashes of puck skill in transition to suggest that there is something to work with at that end. Should that develop, Sotheran can emerge as more than just a bottom-pair shutdown defenseman; that said, such a projection is still worthy of being drafted at a decent spot.

Expect Sotheran to be a comfortable third-round selection with the hopes that he can develop offensively and show legitimate skill. If he does, some general manager is going to look smart.

Hoyt Stanley, D, Victoria (BCHL)

In leagues like the BCHL, it’s difficult to get much attention from scouts due to the leagues not being considered a major junior league. Prospects here have to rely on their toolboxes, and Stanley has one of the best.

A Cornell commit, Stanley possesses the type of traits that NHL coaches usually covet in their defense. While Stanley could afford to be more physical at times, a six-foot-two frame should give him some time to do that. What teams will know immediately is his ability in the offensive zone, where he serves as a creative threat from the blueline. He can accurately predict where the defensive pressure is coming from and play the puck towards a soft spot, or rip one-timers from the point with a good amount of power. The NCAA has boasted plenty of talent coming from these smaller leagues, with the likes of Adam Fantilli, Matthew Wood, and top 2024 prospect Macklin Celebrini all taking the same route. Scouts will hope for further development in Stanley’s game at the collegiate level, which should decide where his ceiling is.

If your team is still looking for a defenseman in the middle rounds and you’re hoping for a dart throw, Stanley is as nice an option as any.

Felix Unger Sorum, F, Leksands (Sweden-Jr)

As mentioned with Stanley, lower leagues tend to require either great tools or production to warrant attention from scouts. In that case, the Norwegian-born, Sweden-representing Unger Sorum could be of interest in the middle rounds.

Possibly the youngest player in the class (he was born one day before the cutoff point for this year’s draft), FUS has spent the last few years working his way through the Swedish hockey ranks. While his first stint in the SHL was short and not overly notable, he’s performed well in every other league, as well as form a dominant line with Otto Stenberg and David Edstrom at the World Juniors. FUS has emerged as a legitimate playmaker throughout the season, and he even showed some defensive chops in his limited time in the SHL. The fact he was able to do this at just 17 years old is astounding in and of itself, and NHL scouts will be looking for FUS to continue developing further.

With time on his side and an impressive resume to build off of, FUS stands out as a player worth targeting in the third round. I don’t know if I’d call him a sleeper top-six option, but he can certainly shine with an organization that preaches patience.

Luke Mittelstadt, D, Minnesota (NCAA)

The pandemic certainly caused havoc in the hockey world, including several prospects missing out on needed development time. Mittelstadt was one such prospect, but the double-overager is hoping that the third time’s the charm for his draft hopes.

After a COVID-ravaged draft season and a mediocre performance last year, Mittelstadt finally put it all together for the Gophers on their way to the championship game this year with 21 points in 38 games. His skating, hockey sense, and playmaking from the back end all looked like they had improved, which is a promising sign of development. Representing the United States at the World Juniors is a nice touch, as well.

There is debate on who the best overage prospect in the draft is. Mittelstadt’s season has certainly thrown his name into contention, and he will be a name to watch in the fourth or fifth round.

Matt Copponi, C, Merrimack (NCAA)

Much of the talk around college prospects centers around Michigan Wolverines Fantilli and Gavin Brindley, which is understandable. While names like Mittelstadt worked hard on a big-time program like Minnesota, Copponi was improving his game in the northeast.

After a rough freshman year at Merrimack, Copponi was one of their best players in his sophomore season. With 29 points in 38 games, he improved dramatically and showcased what he brings to the table as a player. While Copponi certainly has some skill, what really drew the attention of scouts was his ability to be physical in key situations and emerge as a leader. Perhaps that doesn’t equate to being a star, but there is a future where Copponi becomes a vital part of an NHL bottom-six. On last year’s list, I suggested Connor Kurth as a player who would be scooped up as a college free agent if he wasn’t drafted; Kurth ended up getting his name called, and I can imagine Copponi on a similar trajectory.

Copponi may be waiting until the back end of the draft to hear his name, but a low-risk, medium-reward proposition like him is never a bad bet. The fifth or sixth round would be a good place to draft him.

Paul Fischer, D, U.S. NTDP

With names like Will Smith, Ryan Leonard, and Oliver Moore leading the charge, the NTDP is looking at a strong crop for themselves. Of course, those names aren’t the only ones in the mix and, while Carey Terrance and Ryan Fine both warrant mentions, Fischer has been the one making the rounds as a sleeper hit.

As a top-four defenseman for the NTDP, Fischer was defensively responsible and never seemed to be out of position. He’s fast enough to keep the play in front of him and has the hockey sense needed to make the smart play. While his offensive capabilities are a bit behind, those can be built up with time. If he can add some muscle to his frame, however, he can add some power to an underrated wrist shot that could turn him into a threat. Even if he’s an average offensive option, Fischer should earn his keep as a defensive specialist that can impact the game in a number of ways.

A lot of rankings put Fischer around the third round, which teams may consider a little too rich for a somewhat raw prospect. The fourth round seems more reasonable to me, but a team that need defensive help can certainly take a swing.

Eric Pohlkamp, D, Cedar Rapids (USHL)

It’s good seeing players that struggle in their draft years rise up to the occasion, following a positive development curve that teams are looking for. Pohlkamp has emerged from a forgotten option to one of the best overage prospects in this year’s group.

A Bemidji State commit, Pohlkamp’s production exploded this past season en route to being named the best defenseman in the USHL. While he’s serviceable on the back end, Pohlkamp became a threat with the puck on his stick. Whether he’s starting the transition game with a breakout pass or being aggressive with a slapshot from the point, Pohlkamp impressed scouts with much-improved awareness in possession. That kind of development is what scouts want to see, and the idea of drafting him to monitor his collegiate career is an appealing idea.

It’s hard to imagine Pohlkamp being skipped over again after the tremendous season he had. The fifth round would be a worthwhile time to invest.

Brandon Svoboda, C, Youngstown (USHL)

Playing on a championship team can be a double-edged sword; a prospect can get more exposure, but they may not get the playing time they need to shine. On a Youngstown team that included William Whitelaw and Andrew Strathmann, it was the less-heralded Svoboda that earned fans in the scouting community.

On the surface, Svoboda is exactly what NHL teams are looking for. Six-foot-three frame, quality skating to justify keeping him at the center position, good spurts of offensive ability, and that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Like most prospects playing in leagues like the USHL, Svoboda will be going the college route with Boston University. The hope would be that he can gain some much-needed consistency in his game with that route, and it would start by running through the USHL like his toolbox suggests he can.

Svoboda is the classic late-round sleeper that can tilt a draft class in a team’s favor. Expect someone to take the shot in the fifth or sixth round.

Cole Knuble, C, Fargo (USHL)

Typically, prospects who struggle with their skating can find it difficult to progress in their development; however, players like Mark Stone have proven you can get away with even average skating if you have the tools to compensate. Comparing Knuble to the Cup-winning captain might be questionable, but it gives teams some idea of what they’re looking at here.

Son of longtime NHLer Mike Knuble, Cole’s game is fashioned rather similarly to his father. The skating is obviously a problem, but Knuble proved to be a menace to opposing players in his draft season and this season. His two-way game allows him to be active on the forecheck while also possessing the offensive instincts needed to make the best possible play. His willingness to get in front of the net and be a nuisance is also an added bonus, despite not having the typical size of a net-front player. He has committed to Notre Dame, where he’ll hopefully be able to iron out his skating mechanics and polish what appears to be a well-rounded game.

Knuble was a slight surprise to be passed on last year. It would be a bigger surprise if teams make the same mistake twice, even if it has to wait until the later rounds.

Zaccharya Wisdom, F, Cedar Rapids (USHL)

While the USHL may not be as prevalent a scouting haven as the CHL or European systems, this list has shown that talent can still be found there. Wisdom is another prospect that proves such a point.

Brother of Philadelphia Flyers prospect Zayde Wisdom, Zaccharya has done what he can to ensure he does not get passed over like he was last season. A dominant offensive force for Cedar Rapids, Wisdom showcased the skills that NHL teams are commonly looking for in late-round picks. He possesses a nice combination of size and skating ability, plays strong on the forecheck, and is not afraid to get physical and battle along the boards. A Colorado College commit, Wisdom will hope to refine his game in order to better anticipate plays as they develop instead of relying on instincts alone. That said, there is the potential to carve out a spot as a bottom-six NHL forward.

Once again, Wisdom will have to wait for a little while to hear his name get called in the draft. However, similar to Knuble, it’s hard to envision teams passing on Wisdom after the improvement he’s shown.

Tanner Adams, F, Tri-City (USHL)

Adams is a relatively interesting case for this draft. A player who dropped on the NHL’s own rankings, Adams’s season doesn’t really reflect as somebody who struggled at all.

One of Tri-City’s most consistent players this season, Adams showcased some interesting versatility. Despite playing at the wing to start the year, Adams was trusted enough to switch over center and stay, something that will surely capture the attention of scouts. Adams was also deployed in every situation, playing on both the power play and penalty kill units. There isn’t much flash to his game, and he will hope to improve his skating mechanics at Providence, but Adams is the type of player NHL scouts would be comfortable taking late.

While I’m admittedly less certain about Adams’s chances of getting drafted than the other prospects listed so far, that’s based more on the lack of anything flashy than having a lacking skillset. He’s someone that would be a fine late-round choice.

Larry Keenan, D, Culver Academy (US-High School)

High school prospects are risks in large part due to how raw they are, and prospects like Keenan may have their skillsets look better against less stiff competition. That said, when a prospect like Keenan makes the Combine despite being outside the typical range of invitees, there’s going to be some significant intrigue.

While Keenan likely hasn’t been truly tested defensively yet, there’s a lot to like about his overall game. His six-foot-three frame and mobility are what NHL teams look for in their defensemen nowadays, and he can be a true quarterback in the offensive zone with his wicked point shot and offensive instincts. Even more interesting is that Keenan will be playing collegiately for the University of Massachusetts. Take a look at this list of former UMass defenseman: Cale Makar, Brandon Montour, Justin Braun, Mario Ferraro. Those are defensemen who have all carved out spots in an NHL top-four, and Keenan could very well join that group with proper development.

Keenan embodies the term “raw potential,” and teams will likely be drafting him a round or two early just to be sure no one else gets the jump on him. Expect him to be off the board before the fifth round starts.

Scott Ratzlaff/Thomas Milic, G, Seattle (WHL)

It’s hard to believe that two goaltenders from the same team, let alone the same tandem from the team that won the CHL Memorial Cup, would both be on this list. However, such is the case with Ratzlaff and Milic.

While Ratzlaff served as the understudy to the more experienced Milic, he was still able to put together a remarkable season. His six-foot-one frame may not be ideal, but Ratzlaff makes up for it with his athleticism and technical savvy. Ratzlaff is usually in the right position to make saves, but he has the skating ability to get back on the rare occasions he falls out of position. He never puts himself into a bad spot and always seems calm under pressure, which is something NHL scouts will take notice of.

After two seasons of being passed over, it would be outright shocking if Milic is passed for a third time. He won the WHL’s top goaltender award, was the MVP of the WHL’s playoffs, and looked outright dominant for Canada at the World Juniors. His athleticism and competitiveness are almost unmatched, and there’s reason to believe he’s the most pro-ready goaltender in the class. The only problem is Milic is only six feet tall, which is under what the NHL considers ideal for goaltenders. That said, Dustin Wolf has had a nearly similar path to the pros, and he has dominated the AHL to the point that the Calgary Flames might be forced to move a goaltender to make room for him. Milic can do the exact same on another team’s roster, and he has the tools to do it.

While Milic has the slightly better statistical record, Ratzlaff is considered to be the overall better prospect. The third or fourth round would be an ideal time to nab either one, with the confidence that they can reach “future starter” status sooner rather than later.

Damian Clara, G, Farjestad (Sweden-Jr)

Looking for Ratzlaff and Milic’s athletic package, but want prototypical NHL goaltender size? Clara might be exactly what you’re looking for.

Standing at six-foot-six, Italian international Clara moved from Austria to try his hand at the Swedish system. The move’s gone alright for him so far, and he will be called up the second tier of Swedish hockey in the Allsvenskan this upcoming season. While the lack of exposure against top competition makes Clara more of a project, he’s more than just a run-of-the-mill big goaltender. He has the athleticism to move around much more fluidly than a typical man of his stature, which should come in handy as he navigates through the Swedish ranks.

Clara is a pure upside bid at this stage of his development, but that should not deter teams from taking a late-round swing at him. The fifth round seems like the safe bet for his draft spot.